Epstein, Russiagate, 5 Whys, and proxies.
The "Epstein" saga is a subset of a much bigger issue. The Russia hoax unveiling is not a distraction.
In my business (software forensics), I use the time-honored 5 Why analysis to get to the bottom of why things fail. From this, you can determine how to fix issues because you get to root cause.
Here’s my root cause analysis of why DJT uncharacteristically botched the Epstein issue. And why he’ll correct.
Trump weighed the costs and benefits of releasing everything Epstein, assessed that the costs of releasing exceeded the benefits, and weighed against it.
Why would Trump weigh against releasing Epstein files?
A benefit of not releasing is rumored to be that using the Epstein issue gave Trump leverage. No sense in giving up leverage unless you have to. Leverage over power brokers in Congress, for instance.
Another benefit to holding back is to protect Epstein-tainted heads of state (Bibi Netanayhu anyone?) that he must deal with from a strategic standpoint.
A concrete cost of holding back has been the MAGA base blowback. In an earlier post, I said to watch out for softening of base support, and this is happening now. You’ll see it misreported as “Democrat advantage” going into the midterms, but it’s really the populist base reacting badly. This can, and I think will, be corrected.
Why would he miss the blowback?
I think he misread the degree to which the Epstein issue is a proxy for the broader issue among populists about who governs this republic. Are we citizens or are we subjects?
Why would he miss such a strong signal, being that he is the head honcho of MAGA itself?
I think this was due in part to his being increasingly isolated from populist sentiment that ushered him into office. The White House is a bubble, and swampy, Pfizer-lovin’ Susan Wiles controls all the info he receives. He was doubtlessly told MAGA is fine with letting things slide. “Just ride it out. They’re not going anywhere. Besides, look at the wins you have accumulated.” When Bondi botched the rollout, it only exacerbated the blowback — and raised the cost.
Why would he not grasp the existential nature of the Epstein issue?
Populism feeds into MAGA and is an enduring characteristic of US voters. Populism predates MAGA and populism will outlast Trump and MAGA. While Trump was knocking down win after win fulfilling the MAGA agenda, his stance on Epstein revealed a fissure among populists. This you see in the polls now.
Disaffected, no/low-propensity voters, crushed into serfdom by the Administrative/Deep State/Oligarchical Imperium — veritable occupants of District 12 (see Hunger Games) — they’re the ones that reacted badly. Massie represents this segment. Also, the youth vote, which is quick to return to their anti-establishment/quasi-libertarian hangout. Unfortunately, no one in Republican circles can capture this segment, although Vance stands the best chance moving forward. Vance must be spitting nails at this outcome.
The concrete issue to this segment is this: Are we citizens, or are we subjects? Are we a republic, or are we careening toward despotism? The Epstein issue is a proxy to this existential question for this segment. Not a trade deal. Not bombing Iran.
Dangle Epstein in front of them, then take it away, and you lose this group immediately. Yell at them and things worsen. Bad messaging. Bad rollout. Bad follow-through.
Why would such voters swing back around?
Just like Epstein is a proxy, so is Russia-Russia and countless other Imperium-initiated shenanigans. This is why I’ve thought that Trump should have led with Russia-Russia—because it’s easier. And he gets big wins and big scalps who have long gotten away with crimes perpetrated on the American voter. It’s never too late, and the direct evidence that Obama Himself knew of and directed the falsification of the Intel Community Assessment that started it all, is very new. The oft-told “statute of limitations” issue is blown to bits by the repeated lies told by Team Obama in the years since. Doing so after leaving office does away with Immunity protections.
Obama won’t go to jail, but to protect him, others are more likely to.
Other actions, like Todd Blanche interviewing Maxwell in prison and the request to release grand jury evidence—all good and useful.
The polls picked up the fissure and Team Trump is reacting.
If Trump is good at anything, he’s good at correcting.